It will not have escaped anybody’s notice that last week was cold. Temperatures on the night of 9th January were the lowest recorded that month in 15 years, and were quickly surpassed the following day. These sub-zero temperatures were accompanied by low winds and little sunlight, a phenomenon typically known as ‘dunkelflaute’ – a German term which roughly translates as ‘dark doldrums’.
As electricity margins became tighter as a result, the National Energy System Operator (NESO), the operator of the power grid, instructed electricity providers to increase their outputs by issuing both a Capacity Market Notice (CMN) and Electricity Margin Notice (EMN).
In response to NESO’s call, the British gas networks played a vitally important role in bolstering electricity output. By Friday, it’s no overstatement to say that gas kept the nation’s lights on, supplying 53% of electricity demand on 10th January mostly through combined cycle gas turbines (CCGTs). We have over 25GW of CCGT capacity connected to the gas transmission network, owned and operated by National Gas, of which the majority was used on the day. But the gas distribution network also played an important role, with over 5GW of embedded generation connected at a local level.
Throughout this period, networks transported a large quantity of gas which kept customers warm, fueled industry and maintained the overall resilience of the system to keep the lights on. Across GB’s eight main gas storage sites, average levels were over 60%, meaning that networks were – and still are – able to comfortably respond to the challenges posed by sub-zero temperatures this winter.
As we advance towards Clean Power by 2030, we will see natural gas being used less and less for power generation, but some residual natural gas use for power generation will remain. NESO’s recent analysis of what is required for Clean Power 2030 includes 5% of electricity generation from natural gas, and still with the same number of gas power stations as we have on the network today. That means we need to retain capacity across the system, and continue to plan for even higher peak demands than we saw this month. Whether this supply comes from fossil methane or biomethane, or a combination of the two, this will be vital in ensuring energy security as the power sector decarbonises.
If the nation is successful in achieving a fundamental shift to renewable power, gas-fired electricity generation will be used less but will still be required to perform an essential role by complementing renewables during extreme weather, demand peaks and issues with interconnectors or other electricity generation capacity. Making the commercials of this model work will be a significant challenge, but it will be important to make sure that these assets which are critical for our energy security remain economically viable.
As we all thaw out following the freezing cold second week of January 2025, we shouldn’t lose sight of the critical role that gas currently plays in our energy system and the value of gases, in a variety of forms, in keeping our energy supplies secure and a resilient energy network on the journey to Clean Power 2030 and beyond.